future danube
supported by Climate-KIC
supported by Climate-KIC
Our vision is ‘to become one of Europe’s leading providers of catastrophe modelling, softwares, tools, services and models that will enable catastrophe and climate risk assessment and climate adaptation planning by public, finance and other private sector organisations and create greater resilience against future catastrophes and climate impacts.
Oasis+ is a Pan-European consortium of reinsurance, insurance, catastrophe & climate modelling companies, academic and research institutions that have been working together since 2012 to improve the understanding of catastrophe and climate risk. Among the partners of the consortium are: Pannon Pro Innovations, PIK Potsdam, Imperial College London, Technical University of Denmark, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences , Municipality of Budapest, Budapest Sewage Works, Budapest Water Works. Oazis + seeks to provide municipalities, industry and the financial sector with models, tools and services to assist climate adaptation and disaster resilience planning, risk transfer and the accurate underwriting of risk through insurance and reinsurance sector.
Using existing (Re)insurance methodologies of assessing risk through detailed catastrophe and climate models Oazis it seeks to improve the availability of these catastrophe modelling tools to other sectors, through increasing the access to and transparency of catastrophe models and their underlying assumptions and by working towards a recognized standard for assessing this type of risk and the potential costs of damage associated with climate risks.
The major result of this collaboration, an open source catastrophe modelling software, the ‘Oasis Loss Modelling Framework’, has been developed that enables the plug and play of hazard, vulnerability, damage, exposure and financial models and can crunch data and models to provide ground-up loss data and financial damage of event scenarios. Oasis LMF now has a membership of 44 global (Re)insurers and 60 associate members from the global modelling and software development sectors.
The Oasis loss modelling framework for Catastrophe and Climate Change Modelling and Adaptation is a set of catastrophe modelling tools that together aim to offer a more transparent, robust and comprehensive approach for analyzing and pricing risk from extreme events.
While the basins in Hungary and Germany are the focus areas first, extension to other regions in the Danube basin can be done on demand and also to other perils such as droughts and heat waves and heavy precipitation.
We would like to begin to develop a phase 2 approach where the model begins to expand across the Danube Region to encompass areas and sectors of high risk for instance as a result of Danube floods. Therefore, we are seeking to build a larger partnership across the region with municipalities and businesses looking to develop their climate adaptation and disaster resilience strategies through extreme event projection.
We are looking for future partners beyond Hungary, including regions and municipalities at high risk and industries likely to be affected by increasing extreme events. This programme is part of the Oasis+ Consortium goal to grow a knowledge economy using professional catastrophe models as an aid for decision‐making.
After three years of programme funding we intend to eventually license the models so that models can grow and be maintained sustainably in the future through the market, and in doing so provide a tool for consultancies, local authorities and businesses long into the future. Those involved in the co‐design/targeting of the catastrophe models will have free use for a set period of time after completion of the model.
Demonstrating the Oasis Loss Modeling Framework in a number of different contexts is now essential to increase confidence in the system by local authorities, businesses and the (Re)insurance sector. As a result of support from EIT Climate‐KIC, Europe's largest public‐private innovation partnership focused on climate innovation to mitigate and adapt to climate change, we are undertaking the development of a major multi‐hazard, multi‐risk catastrophe and future climate change model for the Danube River Basin. With support from Mayor’s Office in Budapest, our current phase of funding covers the development of specialized models for the Hungarian part of the river system, where we will ensure the model is developed to not only suit the highly demanding criteria required from major insurers and reinsurers, but also to innovate this sort of catastrophe model to be used within municipalities and industries likely to be widely effected by future climate change.
The unique qualities of our system are created by innovating stochastic modelling techniques that can model future risks such as Danube floods. It can also provide potential financial cost and damage results through use of the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework. Under this catastrophe model we are intending to bring the insurance sector, municipalities and utility company risk assessment needs together to co‐design this major model to assist the Danube Region with information for climate adaptation design and the correct underwriting of risk.
The Oasis Loss Modeling framework provides an ‘open source tool’ for risk assessment calculations, which can accommodate most data and models thus enabling the direct comparison of modelled results, leading to increased accuracy in data and models used for risk assessment. The framework already includes a variety of models with a good global coverage.
In this framework, the Future Danube has a module based operation where each module has a responsible developer in the consortium and the modules can be used separately too. Modules are linked in such a way that output from one module can be used standalone (such as heavy precipitation from the weather module) or feed into subsequent modules, e.g. into the hydrology module, to simulate flooding, and from there into the risk module, to simulate losses. This way, stakeholders can estimate risks from multi-perils, but also feed output from the modules into their own simulation tools, if needed, or vice versa. The graphical interface will be a user-friendly web GIS interface allowing for data analysis and extraction. The application of Oasis Loss Modeling the framework is tailor made and based on consultations with the stakeholder in need of forecasts and adaptation measures.
Stochastic generation of weather extremes under current and future conditions (precipitation, heat waves)
Modelling of hydrological extremes (floods, inundation, droughts) and water management (reservoirs, hydropower)
Modelling of flood damages in selected locations, to be extended to larger areas and other sectors
Toolbox for adaptation to hydrological and weather extremes
Graphical interface for visualization of hazards and risk and analysis of outputs
Responsible for business modeling, product development, communication, project development and outreach for potential partners in the Danube Region
The involvement and contribution of these local partners mean the first application of the Oasis framework in the Danube Region. The aim is to understand the climate impacts on the Danube in its Budapest part and consider impacts on the everyday life of the city.
The involvement and contribution of these local partners mean the first application of the Oasis framework in the Danube Region. The aim is to understand the climate impacts on the Danube in its Budapest part and consider impacts on the everyday life of the city.
The involvement and contribution of these local partners mean the first application of the Oasis framework in the Danube Region. The aim is to understand the climate impacts on the Danube in its Budapest part and consider impacts on the everyday life of the city.
Responsible for the adaptation module and planning.
Developer of the risk module.
Leader of the OASIS+ consortium and responsible for the weather and climate module in Future Danube
Coordinator of Future Danube and developer of hydrological module.
